Donald Trump’s political obituary has been written many times. First, before his political career even truly began in 2011, when he was claiming President Barack Obama wasn’t a legal American citizen, and thus, ineligible to be president. Surely, someone like that, at the fringes of the Republican Party, could never become its standard bearer. Then, the obituary’s date was updated for June 16, 2015, when Trump came down the golden escalator (of course) at Trump Tower in New York City to launch his 2016 presidential campaign, railing against Mexico for “not sending their best; they’re rapists.” Again, this guy, with no prior elected office experience, a game show host, who was on the fringe with his words and actions, would not be a serious contender in a crowded Republican primary that included Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and scores of others with actual experience, right? The obituary was updated again after Trump received that improbable Republican Party nomination for President to October 7, 2016, when The Washington Post published the 2005 Access Hollywood tape, where Trump talked about how when you’re a star, you can “grab them by pussy, you can do anything.” A number of Republicans pulled their endorsements. Days after the tape’s release, Hillary Clinton only widened her polling lead over Trump to more than 10 points. Then, Trump won the election and became president. After the 2018 midterms and a romp from the Democrats followed by Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, the obituary was updated once more, amended to suggest that MAGA and Trump were a blip, a fluke, the death throes of a bygone era. The events of January 6, 2021, with Trump leading an attempted coup of the U.S. government to prevent the certification of Biden’s victory, only further cemented Trump’s political death. Trump’s favorability rating dropped to 34%. Then, by July of that same year, his favorability started creeping up, and if anything, two years later, August 24, 2023, when Trump showed up at Fulton County Jail in Atlanta for his infamous mug shot related to felony charges filed against him in his efforts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 presidential election results, it only emboldened him and his supporters (favorability back up to 41%). Then, Trump ran against Biden in the 2024 presidential election, and then Kamala Harris after Biden dropped out, and this time, actually won the popular vote. While still a narrow victory and certainly not the mandate him and his supporters claimed, it was stunning all the same. Now, in 2026, with more than 10 years of Trump since the golden escalator and the repeated rewrites of his political obituary, I understand the hesitation to update the date to November 3, 2026. But it must be said that the 2026 midterms not only feels like the first true repudiation of Trump and MAGA in 10 years, but it’s borne out in the numbers. The blue wave was real, and it sent the clear signal that the American people are tired of Donald Trump and MAGA. For once, finally, they’ve had enough. For once, it feels good to feel good about an election result. For once, Americans can see the dawn of a better future, not one continually backsliding on democracy and human rights, and into wannabe authoritarianism. For once, Trump’s political obituary might just hold this time.
Democrats handily won control of the House and the Senate, and just as importantly, scores of governorships and statehouses across the country. Most notably, Democrats swept senate seats in Texas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, Kansas, and seem poised to even flip senate seats in Mississippi (yes, Mississippi, and potential Democratic Senator Scott Colom’s campaign ad is a hilarious must-watch) and Alaska. Kansas hadn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and of course, a Democrat then wasn’t the same as a Democrat now. Democrats also flipped governorships in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Texas. I don’t think anyone saw the latter coming for sure.
Along the way of the blue wave included a number of firsts, such as Abdul El-Sayed becoming the first Muslim senator in Michigan; Keisha Bottoms the first Black female governor in any state in American history in Georgia; Deb Haaland the first Native American female governor of any state in American history in New Mexico; Amy Acton the first female Ohio governor; and Chris Pappas the first openly gay male senator in New Hampshire, among other “firsts.”
And the thing is, in these traditionally red states, it wasn’t particularly close. That’s why, thankfully, Republicans conceded instead of contesting or dubiously claiming fraud (even Trump didn’t, but that’s not as surprising since he wasn’t on the ballot and one of the losers). The blue wave was that impactful. To put it another way, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, James Talarico in Texas, and Jon Ossoff in Georgia all could have still won their respective senate seats without factoring in any Election Day votes. That’s astonishing. In fact, Talarico won Texas by about as much as Harris won New York in 2024 (Talarico won by 12.1; Harris by 12.6, and again, this is Texas and New York!).
But look at these shifts from Republican to Democrat in House and Senate flips:
These were R+38, +26, +18, etc. seats! And they flipped! The wave was so powerful, even the National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, Richard Hudson, lost in North Carolina to Richard Ojeda II in a previous R+18.5 seat! Even states where Republicans won, like Senator Shelly Capito in West Virginia, she won by 20 points; Trump won the state by 42 points in 2024. To put the blue wave into context, journalist Tim Alberta put it like this: The famous 1994 “Republican Revolution” saw Republicans win the popular vote by 6.8 points. The tail-end of Bush’s second term, the 2006 midterms, ushered in Democrats with 7.9 points in the popular vote; then the Tea Party in 2010 was R+6.8; and finally, in 2018, D+8.6. This midterm? Democrats are tracking toward a 13-point popular vote win. As Alberta notes, you’d have to go back a half century to the post-Watergate wipeout of 1974 when it was D+16.8 to find anything comparable. Going back to Nixon feels appropriate. The famous pollster, Dave Wasserman also called it a “generational wipeout.”
That is why it’s a repudiation this time, and why the Trump political obituary being written and updated once more feels appropriate this time.
The icing on the cake of all of this is that bigoted loser, Elon Musk, who moved to Texas and then spent half a billion dollars in the midterm elections, saw Texas go blue. I personally think there is something so sweet about how even that much money doesn’t really matter when it comes to voting. Voters are going to vote. The blue wave beat the money.
By the way, the most amusing thing about this to me is that I’m not even “blue.” I’m anti-Trump. I have been since his birther days, much less 2015 when he came down the golden escalator. The overriding impetus behind my votes of the past 10 years is ensuring Donald Trump and any Republican down ballot does not win. They do not deserve an ounce of power after aligning themselves with Trump and enabling him.
I would also point out that for those on the left who derisively bemoan these results with the angle of, “Americans didn’t care about democracy backsliding or ICE killing Americans in the street, they only cared about their wallet,” I think they’re wrong on that score, too. Yes, Trump’s tariff policies were exceedingly unpopular with both left and right, as are the high cost of gas and groceries, so was his war of choice with Iran, corruption, and concerns over democracy!
So, I’d argue it’s all of the above when it comes to Trump. Everyone’s just sick of it all.
And young men in particular had two years to look at MAGA’s nonsense and stay all in or repudiate it, and they repudiated it in droves, too:
In fact, the only group that didn’t shift at all from Trump’s coalition was … white evangelicals. Phew, that’s telling and could be a whole post of its own.
Finally, what do I hope for out of the next two years with a Democratically-controlled Congress, a lame duck buffoon, and Democrats taking control of various governorships and statehouses? That we can walk and chew gum at the same time. First, holding Trump and his enablers accountable; it’s a long list. That also means shoring up what Congress can to pull power away from a rogue executive and guarding against a future wannabe authoritarian. Second, I think voters, of course, want Democrats to deliver on promises regarding affordability, healthcare, ending the Iran War, and even transparency on the Epstein files. And third, the statehouses are where you can see a lot of action in terms of necessary reforms, particularly around election integrity and voting laws.
Despite what he says now, Trump said on the campaign trail to vote as if he’s on the ballot. Americans obliged him. Overwhelmingly. And said, “We’ve had enough.” Finally. Freaking finally.
